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Google Analytics to offer 2 new probability metrics: purchase and churn

Google Analytics to offer 2 new probability metrics: purchase and churn Blog Feature

Vin Gaeta

Managing Director, IMPACT+ Division, 10+ Years of Sales & Marketing Experience, 12+ Years of Development Experience, 14+ Years of Project Management Expertise

July 20th, 2020 min read

Google has recently rolled out some new predictive capabilities in Google Analytics that could have some big impacts on your Google Ads — specifically your website users' purchase probability and churn probability.

These newest updates represent the company’s last push into machine learning to help businesses grow by improving the insights available in Google Analytics.

The new information is under the App + Web property type, which allows you to report on combined app and web data. Google rolled the App + Web property out last year.

The reports from the App + Web property type let you use data to get an integrated report from mobile and website data in ways you previously weren’t able to, allowing you to create even more powerful audiences and targeting. 

What capabilities do these new features offer?

The addition of purchase probability and churn probability give you the ability to quickly target those who are more likely to buy and focus on retaining anyone that may leave your business. 

As you create your audience, you’ll see new metric options in the App + Web property type under the “Predictive” heading.

Google Analytics Predictive Purchase and Predictive Churn

Purchase probability

Based on the data at hand, Google will give you insight into users who exhibit behavior it deems shows the highest probability to buy from your brand — which is a pretty awesome insight to have. 

From this metric you’ll get visibility into users who are: 

  • Likely 7-day purchasers: Target users who are likely to make a purchase in the next seven days
  • Likely first-time 7-day purchasers: Target users who are likely to make their first purchase in the next seven days

Churn probability 

The next piece of data you’ll get is based on how users and purchasers are interacting with your brand. Google will give you insight into who’s likely to disengage from your brand over the next week — giving you the opportunity to try and get them active again.

From this metric you’ll get visibility into users who are: 

  • Likely 7-day churning purchasers: Target purchasing users who are likely to not visit your website or app in the next seven days
  • Likely 7-day users: Target active users who are likely to not visit your website or app in the next seven days 

These data sets are formulated based on the actions your visitors take across your website and mobile application experiences.

Because this is so new, it’s hard to tell just how accurate and valuable these new data sets will be, so we’ll keep you posted as we learn more.

Over the next few weeks these new metrics and data sets will roll out to portals, but you’ll need to have purchase events set up or be automatically measuring in-app purchases once certain thresholds are met in order for your App + Web property to be able to leverage them.

🔎Related reading: How to build you first Google Analytics report

How can this help marketers in their day to day work?

With this new data, you’ll be able to quickly create targeted Google Ads campaigns using the purchase probability information, helping to keep your brand top of mind for the user. 

Leveraging this new predictive analytic data you can retarget these user subsets with ads tailored to reengaging them before they’re too far gone, truly allowing you to get the most out of your retargeting campaigns.

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